0:00 Six hours of talks in Miami just ended.0:02 American, Ukrainian, and European negotiators were in one room, trying to forge a single, unified proposal to end the war in Ukraine.0:10 Last week, on Power Moves, we talked about the backroom deals shaping the balance of power.0:16 This is what that looks like in real time.0:18 But while the allies searched for a common voice, President Trump was making a deal of his own — for Russian diesel.0:25 Ukrainian President Zelensky’s response was immediate and brutal.0:29 He called it, quote, “a gift Putin will repay with terror.” That’s the lead.0:34 But it’s not the only move on the board.0:36 Across the world, a different kind of meeting took place.0:40 China, Russia, and Iran held trilateral talks.0:43 Their joint statement was a direct challenge to the West: an end to all sanctions, and a return to diplomacy over Iran’s nuclear program.0:51 They didn't just ask for it.0:53 They anchored their demand in UN Security Council Resolution 2231 — the very framework that underpins the original Iran nuclear deal.1:01 This is a coordinated diplomatic play, using the West's own rulebook against it.1:06 Meanwhile, the ripples of the Ukraine war keep spreading.1:09 In the Black Sea, Bulgaria is now threatening to summon Russia's ambassador.1:14 The reason?1:15 A drone attack on two merchant vessels inside Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone.1:20 They’re waiting for proof, but the accusation itself raises the temperature in a critical waterway.1:26 The Russian Embassy denies their ships were targets, but denial is the cheapest currency in diplomacy.1:32 And beneath all this maneuvering, the human cost mounts.1:35 On October seventh, Russian strikes killed twenty-eight people across Ukraine.1:40 Five of them were children.1:42 Two more were killed in a residential building in Kyiv.1:45 These aren't just statistics for a briefing.1:48 They are the brutal reality that drives those six-hour talks in Miami.1:52 So let’s go deeper.1:53 Let’s put these events on two sides of a split screen.1:57 On one side, you have Miami.1:59 On the other, you have the meeting between Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran.2:03 This isn't just a busy day in foreign policy.2:06 This is the global order bifurcating in front of our eyes.2:09 First, Miami.2:10 The headline is "talks." The REAL story is that after all this time, the US and its key European and Ukrainian partners still need six hours in a room to try and find a unified position.2:21 They don't have one.2:23 Not a real one.2:24 A unified proposal is what you start with, not what you're still fighting for years into a conflict.2:30 It signals a fundamental disagreement on the endgame.2:33 What does victory look like?2:35 What concessions are on the table?2:37 Who pays for reconstruction?2:38 These are the questions hanging over that room.2:41 And right into that fragile process, Trump lobs his diesel deal.2:45 This isn't just a trade agreement.2:47 It's a strategic message.2:49 It tells allies that American economic interests can and will run counter to the collective security strategy.2:56 It tells Moscow that the Western coalition is NOT monolithic.2:59 And it gives Putin something he desperately needs: cash, and the political victory of peeling off the leader of the Western alliance.3:08 Zelensky’s words — “a gift Putin will repay with terror” — aren't hyperbole.3:12 He sees this deal for what it is: fuel for Russia's war machine, paid for by the United States.3:18 Now, flip the screen.3:19 China, Russia, Iran.3:21 Their meeting wasn't about finding a position.3:23 It was about ANNOUNCING one.3:25 Their deputy foreign ministers — Ma Zhaoxu, Sergey Ryabkov, Kazem Gharibabadi — presented a united front.3:31 Their call to end sanctions is predictable.3:34 But wrapping it in the language of UN Resolution 2231 is a sophisticated jab.3:39 It paints them as the defenders of international law, and the US as the rogue state that walked away from the JCPOA nuclear deal in the first place.3:48 Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei then drives the point home, dismissing any American offers to talk as pure deception.3:55 This isn't just posturing.3:57 It's a calculated strategy.3:58 Tehran, with backing from Beijing and Moscow, is signaling that the "maximum pressure" campaign has failed.4:05 They believe they have weathered the storm, and will now only negotiate from a position of strength, on their own terms.4:12 The days of waiting for Washington to dictate the conversation are, in their view, OVER.4:18 What you’re seeing are two competing models of power.4:21 One is a messy, complicated alliance of democracies, struggling to hold a unified line.4:26 The other is a pragmatic, authoritarian bloc, rapidly coordinating to exploit those very divisions.4:32 The question is no longer just about winning the war in Ukraine.4:36 It's about which model for global order will define the next decade.4:40 The backroom deals are now out in the open.4:43 The balance of power isn't just shifting.4:46 It's fracturing.
