0:00 A Google software engineer faces federal fraud charges for allegedly using insider information to pocket one-point-two million dollars from a prediction market.0:11 Now, on Friday's episode, we talked about the market's wild mood swings, and this morning that volatility is hitting a little closer to home for Silicon Valley.0:23 This isn't just about stocks anymore; it’s about who knows what, and when.0:29 So let’s get into it.0:30 The big headlines you need for May twenty-ninth, twenty-twenty-six.0:35 First up, HP just put a number on the future of your desk, and it is a BIG one.0:41 They're now projecting that sixty to seventy percent of their PC shipments in fiscal year twenty-twenty-seven will be AI-enabled.0:51 That's not a typo.0:52 They're saying the majority of computers they sell next year will be fundamentally different.0:59 Meanwhile, Microsoft is still the king of the cloud.1:03 They just locked in a five-hundred-forty-five-dollar price target.1:08 Why?1:08 Analysts are saying their AI position is just too strong to bet against, even with some serious cash burn on the back end.1:17 And if you thought THAT was a vote of confidence, get this: UBS just raised Micron Technology’s price target to one thousand, six hundred and twenty-five dollars.1:29 Yeah.1:30 You heard me right.1:31 One-six-two-five.1:32 That’s a massive signal that the demand for the memory chips that power all this AI stuff isn't just growing, it's exploding.1:42 The broader market?1:43 The S&P 500 closed up a little over half a percent yesterday, but futures for the Nasdaq and Dow are dipping slightly this morning.1:53 Call it cautious.1:54 Investors are holding their breath, waiting for the next big inflation number before they make any real moves.2:02 Okay, let's go back to HP for a second, because this isn't just a forecast—it's a declaration.2:09 They're essentially saying the next great tech battle won't be fought entirely in the cloud.2:16 It'll be fought on your kitchen table, on your work laptop.2:20 Their entire "Future of Work" strategy is built on this idea.2:25 Management is calling it, quote, "one of the most significant technology shifts ever." They're betting that you'll want—and need—AI processing right there in the hardware, not just streamed from a server farm in Virginia.2:41 Here's the catch, though.2:43 This whole plan hinges on you, and me, and literally everyone else, actually upgrading our machines.2:51 It assumes a stable supply chain and a global economy that's ready to spend on premium computers.2:58 That is a very, very big "if." It’s a bold bet on consumer behavior, and we all know how predictable that is.3:06 And that brings us to Microsoft.3:08 While HP is betting on the box, Microsoft is doubling, tripling down on the cloud.3:14 Their Azure platform just did something incredible.3:18 It became the ONLY cloud provider that hosts both OpenAI AND Anthropic's frontier AI models.3:25 Think about that for a second.3:27 The market got nervous when it looked like Microsoft was losing its exclusive grip on OpenAI.3:34 So what did they do?3:36 They went out and partnered with OpenAI's biggest rival.3:40 It's a power move.3:41 It basically makes Azure the Switzerland of frontier AI—everybody has to have an embassy there, which reinforces their moat and keeps enterprise customers locked in.3:53 But even for the king, things aren't perfect.3:57 All that AI power requires gargantuan capital spending.4:01 Building these data centers costs a fortune, and it's squeezing their cloud profit margins.4:07 So the real question becomes: can they keep selling enough high-priced software, like their new Microsoft 365 E7 tier, to pay for it all?4:18 It's a race between revenue and expenses, playing out on a scale that’s hard to even comprehend.4:25 So you've got HP betting billions on the future of the PC.4:29 You have Microsoft spending fortunes to own the AI cloud.4:33 And then you have one engineer at Google who allegedly decided to place his own, much smaller—but career-ending—bet on what he knew was coming next.4:44 What's different today is that the abstract promise of AI is gone.4:49 It's being replaced by cold, hard, incredibly expensive bets on where this technology will actually live.4:57 And right now, nobody—not the hardware makers, not the cloud giants—is willing to fold.
