0:00 In 2022, Germany reversed decades of foreign policy to send heavy weapons to Ukraine, a move that its leaders had long insisted was morally unthinkable.0:10 Last week, Admin, we left off with Nietzsche's argument that suffering is what forges strength.0:17 It makes you wonder if a leader who avoids inflicting necessary pain—on their enemies, or even on their own principles—is actually a weak leader, dooming their people to a greater suffering down the road.0:32 That is precisely the question.0:34 A leader, a prince, is not a priest.0:36 His job is not to save souls, but to save the state.0:40 And the state exists in a world of wolves.0:43 To act like a lamb is to invite the slaughter.0:46 And there's our debate for today.0:49 Is strict adherence to moral principle a sign of strength in a leader?0:54 Or is it, as my guest might argue, a fatal weakness?0:58 My guest today needs little introduction, a Florentine diplomat and political thinker, Niccolò Machiavelli.1:05 A pleasure.1:06 Though I suspect you and I will not agree on the definition of "strength." For you, it seems to be about holding fast to ideals.1:15 For me, it is about holding fast to power.1:18 Because without power, your ideals are just...1:21 pleasant thoughts.1:23 I'd argue that power earned through immoral means is brittle.1:27 It's built on fear, not loyalty.1:29 It creates enemies who are waiting for you to stumble.1:33 A leader who builds on a foundation of trust and principle is building on rock.1:39 Oh, trust is wonderful.1:40 So is peace.1:41 So is prosperity.1:43 A prince should desire all of these things.1:46 But he must be willing to abandon them in a moment if the survival of the state requires it.1:52 He must appear to be merciful, faithful, humane, and religious.1:57 But his mind must be prepared to do the opposite when necessity commands.2:02 Okay, but let's make this concrete.2:04 Imagine a modern leader.2:06 They learn that a terrorist leader responsible for multiple attacks is hiding in a house in a densely populated neighborhood.2:15 They can order a drone strike that will almost certainly eliminate him.2:20 But it will also, uh, almost certainly kill a family living next door.2:25 What does the "strong" leader do?2:27 There is no choice.2:29 It is not even a question.2:31 The leader who hesitates has already failed.2:34 He is weighing the lives of a few strangers against the security of the thousands of citizens he is sworn to protect.2:42 The deaths of the innocents are regrettable, a tragedy.2:46 But the failure to act would be a dereliction of duty.2:50 It is a political, not a moral, calculation.2:53 I hear you, but that calculation is exactly the problem.2:57 Because that act doesn't happen in a vacuum.3:00 You create a dozen new enemies for every "enemy" you kill that way.3:05 The sons and brothers of that family you killed don't see a political calculation.3:11 They see a monstrous injustice.3:13 You've just planted the seeds for the next generation of terrorists.3:18 You've traded a short-term victory for long-term instability.3:22 You are thinking like a philosopher.3:25 A leader must think about the immediate threat.3:28 Long-term stability is a luxury you can only afford after you have survived the night.3:34 If this terrorist is allowed to act, there may BE no long term for the citizens he murders tomorrow.3:41 The prince must deal with the world as it is, not as he wishes it were.3:47 And the world is a place where you must sometimes get your hands dirty to keep your people clean.3:53 But you're assuming the "dirty hands" approach works.3:57 By breaking the rules of war, you give your enemies permission to do the same.4:03 You erode the very international laws and norms that, while imperfect, prevent a constant state of all-out war.4:11 You make the entire world more dangerous, including for your own people.4:16 International law?4:17 Norms?4:18 These are agreements of convenience.4:20 They are webs designed to catch the small flies, but the great hornets will always break through.4:27 Every leader knows this.4:29 They praise the law in public and they break it in private when their interests demand it.4:35 To pretend otherwise is, forgive me, naive.4:38 Alright, I'll give you that leaders are often hypocritical.4:42 But the standard itself still matters.4:45 The aspiration matters.4:47 If we just accept that everyone will act in their worst self-interest, we guarantee a world of chaos.4:54 You guarantee a world of clarity.4:56 You see things as they are.4:58 You understand that your rival is not your friend, and that his promises are only good for as long as they benefit him.5:07 This is not chaos.5:08 This is realism.5:09 It allows you to prepare, to anticipate, and to act decisively.5:14 Okay, let's try a different scenario.5:16 A rising economic power offers your country a trade deal.5:20 It's immense.5:21 It will create a hundred thousand jobs and lower the cost of goods for everyone.5:27 A huge political win.5:29 The catch is that this nation runs on forced labor.5:32 Their factories are essentially prisons.5:35 To get the deal, you must remain silent about their human rights abuses.5:40 You take the deal.5:42 Immediately.5:42 Without hesitation.5:44 Just like that?5:45 You would build your nation's prosperity on the backs of enslaved people?5:50 I would build my nation's prosperity.5:53 Full stop.5:53 The duty of the prince is to his own people.5:57 Their employment, their well-being, their strength.6:00 The condition of another ruler's subjects is that ruler's concern, not mine.6:06 To sacrifice your own people's good for the sake of a foreign population you cannot control is...6:13 madness.6:13 It is a betrayal of your office.6:15 But that's not a strength!6:17 That's a moral and strategic blindness.6:20 You are funding a brutal regime.6:22 You are making your economy dependent on a state built on a foundation of sand.6:28 A state that uses such methods on its own people will not hesitate to use deception and coercion against you when the time is right.6:37 You've gained a fragile prosperity by sacrificing your integrity.6:42 Integrity is the currency of men who have nothing else to trade.6:47 A prince with a full treasury and a happy, employed populace has real power.6:52 He can afford to be magnanimous later.6:55 First, you secure your foundation.6:57 A hungry populace is a rebellious populace.7:00 An unemployed populace is a drain on the state.7:04 You are asking a leader to choose an abstract principle over the concrete well-being of his citizens.7:11 No wise prince would ever make that choice.7:14 I think you're framing it wrong.7:16 The choice isn't between principles and well-being.7:20 It's between two different KINDS of well-being.7:23 One is short-term, materialistic, and built on a morally corrupt bargain that will eventually come due.7:30 The other is long-term, resilient, and built on sustainable, ethical partnerships.7:36 By choosing the first, you are hollowing out your nation's soul for a temporary gain.7:42 A nation's soul does not fill its grain silos.7:46 A nation's soul does not pay its armies.7:49 You speak of what is right.7:50 I speak of what is necessary.7:53 A leader who cannot distinguish between the two will not be a leader for long.7:58 He will be a martyr.8:00 And martyrs are, by definition, failures.8:02 They lose.8:03 Wow.8:03 So any leader who chooses principle over power is a failure?8:08 Nelson Mandela, who chose reconciliation over retribution?8:12 Václav Havel, who chose truth over the comfort of the lie?8:16 You see them as failures?8:18 I see them as men whose circumstances were...8:21 unusual.8:22 Fortune smiled upon them.8:23 For every Mandela, there are a thousand well-intentioned idealists whose names are lost to history because their enemies were more ruthless.8:33 You cannot build a strategy for rule based on the exceptions.8:38 You must build it on the rule.8:40 And the rule is that power respects power.8:43 Nothing else.8:44 So, for you, there's no action—no matter how cruel or deceitful—that is off the table if it serves the state?8:52 A wise prince knows that some vices are necessary for his survival.8:56 Cruelty, when used sparingly and decisively to prevent greater disorder, is a virtue.9:02 Deceit, when used against those who would deceive you, is simple prudence.9:08 The common people are impressed by appearances and results.9:12 If a prince wins and maintains his state, the means will always be judged honorable.9:18 I have to push back on that.9:20 That's an incredibly cynical view of people.9:23 I think people do care about the means.9:26 They care about justice.9:28 They want to believe their leader is a good person.9:31 When they discover the deceit, the trust is shattered, often permanently.9:36 They may want to believe it.9:38 And the prince should let them.9:41 Let him cultivate an image of virtue.9:43 But he must never be chained by it.9:46 It is better to be feared than to be loved, if you cannot be both.9:50 Love is held by a chain of obligation which, since men are wretched creatures, is broken on every occasion that their own interests are at stake.10:01 But fear is held by a dread of punishment which never fails.10:05 So we're left with a choice, then.10:08 Not just for leaders, but for us, for the citizens.10:11 What do we actually demand from them?10:14 Do we want leaders who reflect our highest ideals, even if it makes them less effective in a brutal world?10:21 Or do you want leaders who will do the hard, ugly things necessary to keep you safe and prosperous, even if you must look away while they do it?10:32 It seems the question isn't whether a leader can be both good and powerful.10:37 It's what we, the people, truly value more: the appearance of our virtue, or the reality of our security.
