About this episode In this insightful podcast, we delve into the subtle and strategic diplomatic moves shaping our world. From alliances and foreign policy shifts to defense pacts, sanctions, and trade negotiations, each episode uncovers the underlying power dynamics often hidden behind official statements. Delivered with the perspective of a seasoned foreign correspondent, listeners will gain a nuanced understanding of how words and actions influence global stability, helping them grasp the real forces shifting the balance of power every day.
0:00 at the g twenty finance summit china just blocked the entire group over two words non market that's it two words in episode one twenty five we talked about the new playbooks of digital diplomacy but this is something different this is where the fight moves from code to commodities and the battlefield is the dictionary itself a senior us0:20 official put it bluntly he said as we have seen with the chinese they try to slow things down and methodically change the nomenclature we're not going for that the us wanted the g twenty to condemn non market policies that create trade imbalances china said no and because the g twenty requires consensus the whole thing stalled so why0:39 would china risk a major diplomatic incident over a couple of words because those words point directly at the source of its power here's the thing when you hear about china's economic power you probably think of factories and exports that's not the whole story the real story is what goes into the factories china controls 91% of the entire1:00 world's rare earth separation and refining 94% of permanent magnet production the things you need for everything from f 30 fives to electric vehicles this isn't just a market lead this is a strategic chokehold and they are not afraid to use it in 2023 beijing slapped export restrictions on two key minerals gallium and germanium global semiconductor supply chains1:24 went into a panic one analyst said it perfectly control over inputs can be more powerful than control over technology itself china knows this the us knows this and that's why a fight over language at a g20 summit is not just a fight about words it's a proxy war over who controls the twenty first century assembly line so1:44 what's the american response it's a mix of big headlines and quiet desperation you see the tariffs you hear the tough talk from treasury secretary scott bessant but look closer the us is trying to set up a global economic statecraft fund to counter china the proposed budget 1 to $2,000,000,000 that sounds like a lot until you remember china's2:05 trade surplus with the eu alone was €360,000,000,000 last year the fund is a water pistol against a fire hose meanwhile us export controls on technology are leaking badly a new report from the senate found that underfunding and staffing issues are crippling enforcement china is still getting the high-tech chips it needs partly through stockpiling partly through straight up2:26 smuggling so the us is trying to block the technology but china is one step ahead controlling the raw materials that the technology is built on this is where the game gets interesting because it's not just a two player game anymore2:41 look at indonesia for years it was just a place you got nickel from now jakarta is making a power play they've signed a strategic deal with arm limited the british chip designer to train 15,000 new semiconductor engineers by 2030 they're using their nickel leverage to build their own tech industry from the ground up their goal is to3:01 create over $7,000,000,000 in new value not by shipping raw ore but by designing and building the future this is a middle power refusing to be just a supplier they're demanding to be a partner and they're not alone the us is now looking at brazil which holds the world's second largest rare earth reserves but has almost no processing3:21 capacity for decades it was cheaper to just buy from china not anymore the new logic of geopolitics is that secure supply chains are more valuable than cheap ones the us is finally waking up to the fact that you can't win a tech race if your rival owns the racetrack the materials to build the cars and the fuel3:39 to make them run this is the new map of global power being drawn it's not about ideology it's about geology it's not about who has the biggest army but who controls the lithium the cobalt the nickel the rare earths the fight over non market policies at the g20 wasn't the start of something it was the moment the3:58 world was forced to acknowledge the quiet economic war that has been raging for years the real estate craft isn't happening in press conferences it's happening in refineries in shipping manifests and in the fine print of mining contracts control the inputs and you don't just influence the market you become the market
