DEEP_DIVE 5 min
0:00 four civilians were killed at a wedding in sirik iran on tuesday that single us strike changed the physics of the entire conflict in episode one thirty we talked about words as weapons this week we're seeing the opposite weapons are forcing a new desperate kind of diplomacy iran immediately announced a regretful response which sounds weak but it was0:25 a signal because while tehran was talking regret its neighbors were already on the move trying to stop the entire gulf from catching fire saudi crown prince mohammed bin salman and oman's sultan haytham held an emergency meeting in jeddah the agenda wasn't complicated how to keep the oil flowing when american and iranian forces are trading blows here's what's0:48 different today this isn't about the un it's not about brussels the countries trying to pull the world back from the brink are qatar oman and pakistan they formed a sort of ad hoc mediation club why look at a map the strait of hormuz that's it that's the entire reason the diplomatic insight publication puts it plainly prolonged disruption1:11 there impacts gulf economies international shipping and global energy markets this isn't about world peace for them it's about survival so qatar's prime minister sheikh mohammed was in tehran in late august meeting with iran's foreign minister oman's sultan met with mbs they are working every angle running a shadow diplomatic campaign to keep that straight open qatar's foreign ministry1:34 spokesperson majid al ansari put it on the record we urge the parties to exercise wisdom and return to the negotiation path but listen to the second half of his quote we continue to intensify our efforts with our mediation partners partners plural this is a coordinated regional scramble happening completely outside the old power structures1:56 so what is iran actually doing this is the core of the story they issue a statement about a regretful response to the killing of their citizens regretful it's an incredibly soft word it's a message sent in the clear to washington it says we have to do something but we don't want this to spiral and then less than2:20 twenty four hours later iran's president masoud peshashqian gives the other half of the message he says iran will respond reciprocally if the united states returns to the commitments it made back in june you see the game one public message for the hardliners at home another for the diplomats this is a country playing a weak hand the analysis2:43 from britannica is brutal but clear years of sanctions protests and military setbacks have left iran severely weakened their foreign minister abbas arakji is a veteran of the 2015 nuclear deal he knows how to talk to the west but he also knows his government is fighting for its life so they signal de escalation with one hand while promising3:06 retaliation with the other it's a tightrope walk over a canyon and the whole region is holding its breath but here's the turn here's the piece that changes how you should see all of this why is the us comfortable with these military exchanges why risk it because they've made a calculation the united states and israel have looked at3:27 iran's weakened position and decided that military force offers more leverage than diplomacy right now read that again they believe strikes pressure and coercion will get them more than sitting at a table this isn't a failure of diplomacy it's a strategic choice to bypass it the strikes aren't a bug they're a feature they are a tool to keep3:50 iran off balance to extract concessions that negotiations couldn't deliver all the frantic mediation from qatar and oman all the carefully worded statements from tehran they are all responses to this one core calculation made in washington and tel aviv so when you see the headlines about potential talks remember what's happening underneath this isn't a simple story of two4:15 sides inching toward war it's a story about a region desperately trying to build firewalls against a conflict that one side believes it is already winning the gulf states are not mediating to help iran they are mediating to save themselves from the fallout of a contained conflict that is threatening to become very uncontained very fast the most important4:40 negotiation isn't happening between the us and iran it's happening between the regional powers and reality itself they are betting they can build a peace that the world's only superpower has decided is inconvenient
