0:00 For the thirteenth consecutive night, American missiles are hitting Iran.0:04 The U.S.0:05 just rejected Tehran's latest ceasefire proposal, delivered by the Prime Minister of Iraq.0:11 In episode eighty-eight we talked about new global alliances; today you're watching one being forged in fire over the Strait of Hormuz.0:19 Here's what else is moving on the board.0:22 Washington just pulled off a tectonic shift in the Middle East, inking a new civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia.0:30 The price for Riyadh?0:32 They must join the Abraham Accords and formally recognize Israel.0:36 It’s a stunning realignment.0:38 Across the continent, the European Union just locked in its twenty-first round of sanctions against Russia.0:45 The big move here is a twelve-month freeze on the Russian oil price cap.0:49 An EU diplomat said member states showed solidarity with Greece, and expect that solidarity to be returned.0:56 A clear signal of internal horse-trading to maintain a united front.1:01 But not all of Washington's plans are holding.1:03 President Trump's tariffs, the ones aimed at forced labor in China, are set to expire TODAY.1:09 Multiple court challenges have gutted the legal authority, a major blow to the administration's use of trade as a weapon.1:17 And two final notes.1:18 A new report from the Council on Foreign Relations lays out a multi-tiered strategy for the U.S.1:25 to counter “gray zone” attacks — those hybrid, deniable assaults on allies.1:29 They're trying to write a playbook for a fight that's already started.1:34 At the same time, another analysis from Victor Cha highlights the G7's strategic gaps in the Indo-Pacific, warning that the most influential countries in that region are NOT in the club.1:46 The old power centers are realizing they don't have all the key players at their table.1:52 So let's go back to the Persian Gulf.1:54 Because what's happening there is much bigger than just thirteen nights of missile strikes.2:00 The White House isn't just striking back.2:02 It's now using frozen Iranian assets to compensate for damages to ships and cargo.2:08 This isn't just punishment.2:09 This is ECONOMIC warfare, running parallel to the shooting war.2:14 They are treating Iran’s sovereign wealth as a battlefield resource.2:18 And that move pushes this conflict into entirely new territory.2:22 It is forcing a choice.2:23 A terrible, stark choice.2:25 The political scientist Robert Pape says this ends one of only two ways.2:30 EITHER, Iran weathers this storm.2:32 They absorb the attacks, they keep their allies, and they emerge as a fourth global power.2:38 A power that the U.S.2:39 and Israel are simply forced to accept.2:41 A new, permanent fixture in the world order.2:44 Or… the U.S.2:45 and Israel win so decisively that they create a new neo-conservative colonial order in the region.2:51 A complete rollback of Iranian influence, enforced by American firepower.2:56 There is no middle ground in this vision.2:59 There is no negotiated settlement.3:01 There is only victory or defeat.3:03 This is why that new U.S.-Saudi deal is so critical.3:06 It’s not about energy.3:08 It’s about picking a side.3:09 Washington is building an anti-Iran coalition and is paying for it with nuclear technology and diplomatic legitimacy.3:17 The deal is contingent on Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel.3:21 It is the ultimate transactional alliance.3:23 Washington is building a WALL around Tehran, brick by brick, deal by deal.3:28 There are dissenters.3:29 Philip Gordon at the Brookings Institution put it bluntly.3:33 He said trying to win this way is like the old joke: "If I were trying to get to Aberdeen, I would not start from here." He argues the only real exit is to pay Iran off to open the Strait and freeze its nuclear program.3:47 But that path is gone.3:49 The administration has made its choice.3:51 They are starting from here.3:53 So what's different today?3:55 Yesterday, the lines were drawn by old alliances.3:58 NATO, the G7, the post-Cold War order.4:00 They were familiar.4:02 They were stable.4:03 Today, the lines are being drawn by live fire in the Gulf and high-stakes deals in Riyadh.4:08 It's a world where nuclear agreements are bargaining chips for diplomatic recognition, and frozen assets are war reparations seized mid-conflict.4:18 The old rulebook is gone.4:19 Power isn't just shifting.4:21 It's being taken.4:22 And the price of being a friend, or an enemy, has never been higher.
