0:00 So, something like eighty percent of new product line extensions are dead within three years.0:06 Eighty.0:07 Percent.0:07 That number is just… it’s one of those stats you hear and you think, "no way." But then you look at your own history… and you’re like, "oh, yeah, that tracks." It totally tracks.0:20 And it’s why last week, when we were unpacking our own biggest business blunders, so much of it came back to products that just… didn't land.0:30 We thought we were building something genius, and the market just went, "meh." Yeah, and here's the part that gets me.0:38 We have all these methodologies now, right?0:41 Agile, lean startup, design thinking… yet the overall innovation success rate is still stuck somewhere between five and twenty percent.0:51 So what's broken?0:52 Because it feels like we’re getting better and better at building things the wrong way.0:58 We’re executing flawlessly on bad ideas.1:01 Exactly.1:02 There's this great line from a Strategyn report that says, "Fixing execution without fixing the front end is treating the symptom." The failure doesn't happen when the engineers write bad code.1:16 The failure happened months, maybe a year, earlier.1:19 It happened in the meeting where everyone nodded along to a flawed assumption.1:25 That’s the moment.1:26 That's the point of failure.1:28 You just don't know it for a year.1:31 And I think most founders, if they're being honest, know that feeling.1:36 You're trying to size a market or validate a need, and the confidence… it just isn't quite there.1:42 But you push forward anyway because you're supposed to have conviction.1:47 Right!1:48 You've raised money on this idea, you've hired people.1:52 It's a train that's already left the station, and you're just hoping the track is actually built all the way to the destination.2:01 Which brings us to probably the most extreme example I've heard all year.2:06 Guy Raz just wrote about this today.2:09 The founder of Toast, Aman Narang.2:11 Oh, the restaurant POS system.2:13 They’re huge.2:14 Over twenty percent of U.S.2:16 restaurants, something like two billion in revenue.2:20 Yep, that's the one.2:21 His first idea, the one before Toast, failed in twenty minutes.2:26 Wait, what?2:26 Twenty… minutes?2:28 Not twenty days or twenty weeks?2:30 Twenty.2:30 Minutes.2:31 He’d built this app to let diners pay their bill without waiting for the server.2:37 They launched it, and within less than half an hour, it was clear that nobody cared.2:43 Diners didn't see it as a big enough problem.2:46 Wow.2:46 Okay, so what does that mean for a founder listening to this?2:50 Your brilliant idea might have a shelf life shorter than a sitcom.2:55 Exactly.2:56 But here’s the turn.2:57 In those twenty minutes of failure, he noticed the real problem.3:02 The servers were run ragged, the kitchen was chaotic, the managers were using five different ancient systems that didn't talk to each other.3:12 The problem wasn't the diner's ten-minute wait for the check.3:16 The problem was the entire back-of-house operation.3:20 The whole thing was a dumpster fire.3:22 And that twenty-minute failure directly led to the idea for Toast, which is now a fifteen-billion-dollar company.3:30 The failure wasn't the end; it was the signpost pointing to the actual treasure.3:36 So the lesson isn't "don't fail." It's "fail fast enough that you can see what you were missing." The first idea is just the price of admission to see the real problem.3:48 It's the cover charge for the nightclub of market reality.3:52 Oh, I'm stealing that.3:54 That's good.3:55 Okay, but the twenty-minute flameout is, like, a dramatic Hollywood failure.4:00 I think for most of us, it's more of a slow, painful bleed-out.4:04 Oh, for sure.4:05 It’s the failure that takes six months and you just watch the metrics flatline day after day.4:12 It's brutal.4:13 I saw this post from a founder, Jonathan August, that was so painfully honest.4:18 He documented his big Product Hunt launch for his new SaaS tool.4:23 He did everything right—the pre-launch hype on LinkedIn, getting the post ready...4:29 all of it.4:30 And?4:30 Let me guess.4:31 It wasn't number one for the day.4:33 It was number ninety-five.4:35 Oof.4:35 Ninety-five.4:36 With ten upvotes.4:37 Ten.4:38 Oh, that hurts.4:39 It gets worse.4:40 His LinkedIn announcement got seen by 403 people.4:43 From that, the launch got a total of eighty-four visitors to the site.4:48 Okay, eighty-four visitors.4:50 That's not… terrible.4:52 Maybe they're really high-intent visitors?4:55 You'd hope so, right?4:56 Of those eighty-four visitors… one person signed up for a trial.5:01 One.5:01 One.5:01 And the number of paying customers?5:04 Zero.5:04 Okay.5:04 That story is WAY more relatable than the twenty-minute failure.5:09 That is the default founder experience.5:12 You spend months building, you psych yourself up for the big launch, you hit "publish," and then… crickets.5:19 Absolute crickets.5:21 And here’s what that means if you're a founder about to launch.5:25 Your LinkedIn likes, your Product Hunt upvotes, your Reddit comments… they are not currency.5:32 They don't convert to revenue.5:34 It’s the gap between "that's cool" and "here's my credit card." And that gap is a canyon.5:40 Jonathan even said it himself, "Don't judge a post by the number at the top." The engagement, the comments, the conversations… that was more indicative of interest than the upvote count.5:53 But even that didn't lead to a single paying customer.5:57 It all goes back to what that Harvard analysis found.6:01 These failures almost always trace back to a handful of flawed assumptions about the market, the customer, or the problem.6:10 He assumed that the interest he was seeing on social media would translate into trial signups.6:16 It was a bad assumption.6:18 We've all made that assumption.6:20 You get a hundred likes on a "coming soon" post and you start calculating your ARR.6:26 And you're almost always wrong.6:28 That's the thing.6:30 Businesses don't fail because they can't build the product.6:34 They fail because they can't sell it.6:37 They can't find the people who are willing to cross that canyon from "liking" it to actually paying for it.6:44 So we have Aman Narang, whose idea was so wrong it was obvious in minutes.6:49 And you have Jonathan August, whose idea was just… not compelling enough to get a single person to pay.6:57 Two sides of the same coin.6:59 Totally.6:59 Both stories scream the same thing: your initial plan is a fantasy.7:04 It’s a set of guesses.7:06 And the launch is just the first moment that fantasy collides with reality.7:11 I mean, the data is just overwhelming.7:14 Nine out of ten startups fail.7:16 Seven and a half out of ten venture-backed startups fail.7:20 The ones with all the resources and the "smart money." Which should be liberating, in a weird way.7:27 It means you are PROBABLY going to fail.7:30 That’s the default state.7:32 So the goal can't be to avoid failure at all costs.7:35 Right.7:36 The goal has to be to learn something from the failure that you can use for the next attempt.7:42 Like Aman Narang did.7:44 He didn't quit and get a job.7:46 He looked around and said, "Okay, that didn't work.7:49 What's the actual problem here?" There was this post on Instagram from thisweekinstartups.7:56 It was a founder who shipped ten failed products in four months.8:00 Ten products in four months?8:02 That's… an insane pace.8:04 An absolutely blistering pace.8:06 But the eleventh one hit.8:08 And he sold it.8:09 It's the persistence.8:10 You can't succeed if you're not willing to fail, and he was willing to fail at a rate that most people would find terrifying.8:19 I think that's the real takeaway.8:22 We talk about these failure rates—eighty percent, ninety percent—and it sounds so daunting.8:28 It sounds like a reason not to even try.8:31 Yeah, it feels like a death sentence before you start.8:35 But maybe it's the opposite.8:37 Maybe it's permission.8:39 It’s permission for your first idea to be wrong.8:42 It’s permission for your launch to be a dud.8:45 It’s permission for you to be Jonathan August, with your one trial signup and your zero customers.8:52 As long as you don't stop there.8:54 As long as you treat that failure as a data point, not a verdict.8:59 The verdict is what you do next.9:01 Right.9:02 The data says, "People are not willing to pay for this solution to this problem." So now you have a choice.9:09 Do you change the solution, or do you change the problem you're solving?9:14 And that's the whole game, isn't it?9:17 It's a series of experiments.9:19 Some will blow up on the launchpad.9:22 Some will fizzle out in orbit.9:24 But one of them might just get you to the moon.9:27 You just don't know which one it'll be when you start.9:31 So maybe the question we should all be asking ourselves isn't, "Is my product going to succeed?" It's, "What's the single biggest assumption I'm making right now… and what's the cheapest, fastest way I can go out and prove it wrong?"
