0:00 A new analysis projects Donald Trump's tariffs will cost your household an extra NINE HUNDRED dollars this year.0:06 In yesterday's briefing, we covered the day's national headlines.0:10 Today, we're seeing the direct economic impact of those policies.0:13 This isn't a theoretical number.0:15 It’s an effective tax increase of nearly one thousand dollars per household, and it's one of three major headwinds hitting the U.S.0:23 economy right now.0:24 The other two?0:25 Geopolitical tension and stubborn inflation.0:27 But here's the catch.0:29 Wall Street doesn't seem to care.0:30 The Dow, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq all finished the day higher.0:34 Why?0:34 Sustained, massive spending by Big Tech on artificial intelligence.0:38 The market is betting that AI-driven productivity will outweigh everything else.0:43 It's a powerful narrative, and it pushed the S&P to a record high back in June, up eleven percent for the year.0:49 But the gains are NOT evenly spread.0:51 While Amazon is up over thirteen percent, Apple is down more than eight.0:56 Reddit is down almost seventeen percent.0:58 This isn't a rising tide lifting all boats.1:00 It's a handful of mega-caps pulling the entire index forward while other sectors struggle.1:06 So, if the stock market is ignoring the headwinds, where should you look for the real story?1:11 Look at the bond market.1:12 The yield on the 10-year U.S.1:14 Treasury bond just hit four-point-six-five percent.1:17 That's up from just three-point-nine-five percent in February.1:20 That is a massive move in the bond world.1:23 It’s a bright red WARNING light.1:25 Bond investors are the sober ones in the room, and they are telling you they expect inflation to remain a problem.1:31 They expect the Federal Reserve to keep policy restrictive for longer than anyone hoped.1:36 The yield curve has flattened, which is technical jargon for saying the market believes the cost of money is going to stay high.1:44 This affects everything — your mortgage, your car loan, your credit card rates.1:48 This tension shows up in the jobs market, too.1:51 The numbers have been all over the map.1:53 The U.S.1:54 lost one hundred and fifty-six thousand jobs in February, then gained two hundred and fourteen thousand in March.2:00 The first half of the year averaged out to a gain of ninety-two thousand jobs per month.2:05 That's growth, but it's choppy and uncertain.2:08 It’s the sign of an economy fighting against those three headwinds we talked about.2:13 And you can see the geopolitical stress directly in commodities.2:16 Silver briefly surged past fifty-nine dollars an ounce today.2:20 That happened right after the U.S.2:22 announced a pause in airstrikes.2:24 That single move highlights the fragility of the market.2:27 Year-over-year, silver is up sixty-point-nine percent.2:30 Investors are fleeing to hard assets as a hedge against global instability.2:34 For your own money, there are still safe havens.2:37 The highest Certificate of Deposit rate today is four-point-one-five percent, from Synchrony Bank.2:43 It's a sign that even as the broader economy flashes warning signals, there are still pockets of stability if you know where to look.2:50 So here's the picture today.2:52 Three negative forces are hitting the economy: tariffs, geopolitics, and inflation.2:57 The stock market is choosing to focus only on the promise of AI, driving indexes to new highs.3:02 But the bond market, the jobs numbers, and commodity prices are all telling a much more cautious story.3:08 They’re pricing in the risk.3:10 They're preparing for a longer, harder fight against inflation and instability.3:14 The stock market is a vote on how people feel.3:17 The bond market is a calculation of what things actually cost.3:21 Today, the feeling is optimistic.3:23 But the calculation just got a lot more expensive.
