0:00 The U.S.0:00 economy added just 29,000 jobs in September.0:03 The expectation was ninety thousand.0:05 In our last briefing, we talked about the tension building ahead of this report.0:10 Today, that tension snapped.0:12 The number is a profound miss, and it changes the entire economic picture just one month before the midterm elections.0:19 Here are the other headlines that matter.0:22 Wall Street heard the bad news on jobs… and celebrated.0:26 The S&P 500 jumped zero point seven percent.0:28 The Dow rose half a percent.0:30 The Nasdaq gained one point two percent.0:33 All are now flirting with record highs.0:35 The reason is simple: a weak job market means the Federal Reserve is far less likely to raise interest rates again.0:43 The odds of another hike in October just collapsed, from sixty-four percent a week ago to less than twenty-three percent today.0:51 Meanwhile, President Trump announced direct payments to over 20 million Medicare beneficiaries.0:57 Checks and direct deposits for nearly ninety dollars are going out in early October.1:02 The move is funded by a 2008-era Medicare fund, but its timing is purely 2026.1:07 This comes as the President is also floating a five-thousand-dollar payment to every adult citizen if Republicans win the midterms.1:15 In Seattle, a major strike has been averted.1:18 Boeing’s largest white-collar union, representing engineers and technical workers, ratified a new four-year contract on October first.1:27 A walkout threatened to halt production of the 737 Max 10 and the 777X jets, both of which are already years behind schedule.1:35 For now, the assembly lines will keep moving.1:37 And in New York, the National Multiple Sclerosis Society just launched a one-billion-dollar campaign to end the disease.1:45 It’s a five-year effort, kicked off with a record-breaking twelve-million-dollar gala last night.1:51 For the first time, the Society says ending MS is now within reach.1:56 Tonight, iconic buildings across New York City will be lit orange to mark the campaign's public launch.2:02 So.2:02 A jobs report this weak should be a five-alarm fire.2:06 Instead, the stock market is popping champagne.2:09 What is going on?2:10 Here's the disconnect.2:11 For the past year, the market has been obsessed with one thing: inflation.2:16 And the Federal Reserve’s war against it.2:18 Every piece of good economic news — strong hiring, rising wages — was seen as BAD news, because it meant the Fed would have to keep hiking interest rates to cool things down.2:29 Higher rates make it more expensive for companies to borrow and expand, which hurts stock prices.2:36 This September jobs report is the first truly decisive signal that the cooling is working.2:41 Maybe too well.2:42 The net addition of 29,000 jobs isn't just a miss; it's a rounding error in an economy this size.2:48 Vanguard’s senior economist, Adam Schickling, put it bluntly: "This report strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to remain patient." That’s the code.2:58 "Remain patient" means no more rate hikes.3:01 And that’s why the market is rallying.3:03 The bad news was the good news it was waiting for.3:07 But that is the Wall Street story.3:09 It is not the story on the ground.3:11 For millions of Americans, the story is what Heather Long, the chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, calls "disappointing." She notes that while some wage metrics look okay, average hourly earnings fell three percent over the last year, while inflation is running at three point four percent.3:30 Her words: "Wage growth has been totally wiped out by inflation." The hope for hiring to pick up is, quote, "gone." This is felt acutely by veterans.3:40 The unemployment rate for post-9/11 vets just jumped from three point five percent to four point one percent in a single month.3:48 While some programs like the Wounded Warrior Project report success placing individuals, the overall trend is clear.3:55 The job market is tightening.3:57 This creates two completely different realities heading into the November third midterms.4:03 You have the White House spokesperson, Taylor Rogers, pointing to modest gains in manufacturing and construction as "proof that President Trump’s reindustrialization agenda is working." And you have the ninety-dollar checks going out to seniors, a direct injection of cash just as voting begins.4:21 It’s a tale of two economies.4:23 One is a high-level abstraction, a game of probabilities about what the Federal Reserve might do next.4:30 In that economy, a weak job report is a victory.4:33 The other economy is your paycheck.4:35 It’s the price of diesel.4:36 It’s whether your wages are actually keeping up with the cost of everything else.4:42 And in that economy, this week’s numbers are not a cause for celebration.4:46 They are a warning.
