About this episode Start your day with 'The 10 Headlines That Matter,' your essential US news briefing. This concise dispatch cuts through the noise, delivering only the most consequential national stories, curated by a veteran correspondent. You'll gain a clear, impactful understanding of the issues truly shaping the nation, ensuring you're informed on what counts without any filler.
0:00 The US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September.0:03 That’s not a typo.0:04 Economists expected 85,000.0:06 Yesterday, we covered the day's top headlines, but today, that single number changes the entire economic story.0:14 Here's what else is moving.0:15 Oil prices are climbing for a third straight day.0:19 West Texas Intermediate crude is now over 102 dollars a barrel.0:23 This comes as the US deploys an additional aircraft carrier and 10,000 troops to the Persian Gulf, a clear sign of escalating tensions in the Middle East.0:34 President Trump is reportedly considering resuming strikes on Iran, but not until after the midterm elections.0:41 In healthcare, the National Multiple Sclerosis Society just launched a massive, one-billion-dollar campaign to end MS.0:49 The five-year effort kicked off with a record-breaking 12 million dollars raised at a gala today.0:56 It’s the most ambitious effort in the Society’s 80-year history, a major step for the nearly one million Americans living with the incurable disease.1:06 The government also published a new plan to lower Medicare drug prices.1:11 The headline sounds good.1:13 The reality is muted.1:14 The new payment model is expected to affect only FOUR pharmaceutical manufacturers.1:20 Why?1:20 Because the rest of the industry already struck most-favored-nation pricing deals with the Trump administration, effectively exempting them.1:30 And finally, Nike is cutting jobs.1:32 The CEO confirmed a restructuring in a letter to employees.1:36 It’s another major corporation signaling caution, bracing for an economic slowdown that, according to today's data, may already be here.1:45 Now, let's go back to that jobs number.1:48 Twenty-nine thousand.1:49 This isn't just a shocking miss against the 85,000 forecast.1:53 It’s the details underneath.1:55 The unemployment rate ticked UP, to four point two percent.1:59 And the job gains from August were revised DOWN, to 133,000.2:03 This is not a one-month blip.2:05 This is a trend.2:06 The hiring momentum we’ve been tracking for a year is fading, fast.2:11 So, what happens now?2:12 The Federal Reserve is watching.2:15 And this report gives them the perfect justification to do what the market has been begging for.2:21 Nothing.2:22 After this data landed, traders slashed their bets on an October interest rate hike.2:27 The odds are now just twenty-six percent.2:30 The Fed has cover to pause.2:32 But this fight is NOT over.2:34 A rate hike in December, another quarter-point increase, is still the base case for most analysts.2:41 Yes, the recent PCE inflation data was softer than expected.2:45 But the Fed’s primary mandate is to crush inflation, and they have not declared victory.2:51 They will not risk easing up too soon.2:53 Now, a quick note.2:55 We are discussing market movements and Federal Reserve policy.2:59 This is for informational purposes and reflects our analysis.3:03 It is NOT financial advice.3:05 The most immediate and violent reaction was in the bond market.3:09 For weeks, we’ve watched U.S.3:11 Treasury yields climb to levels not seen in 24 years, choking off credit and spooking equity markets.3:18 That trend just snapped.3:20 The 10-year Treasury yield fell back to about five point two three percent.3:25 The two-year yield, which is highly sensitive to Fed policy, dropped 11 basis points.3:31 That is the market repricing the future in real time.3:34 Investors are betting the peak for interest rates is suddenly much closer than we thought yesterday.3:41 But there is a sharp risk here.3:43 Some economists are warning that if the Fed pauses in October, and inflation proves stubborn, the bond market could revolt.3:52 A selloff would send yields right back to those painful highs.3:56 As Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said recently, "markets are pretty good when they want to send the signal." Right now, the signal is relief.4:06 Tomorrow, it could be panic.4:08 It all depends on the next piece of data.4:11 This is the new tightrope.4:13 For months, the dominant narrative was a resilient US economy, a labor market that refused to break, no matter how hard the Fed tightened.4:22 That story just ended.4:24 The debate is no longer if a slowdown is coming.4:27 The question now is how deep it will be, and whether the Federal Reserve has already lost control of the landing.
