0:00 Iran’s oil exports just fell below three hundred thousand barrels per day.0:05 That’s the lowest level in six years, a direct result of the U.S.0:10 naval blockade.0:11 In our last episode, we talked about power moves in Washington.0:16 Today, we see the consequences of those moves at the global level.0:21 The Strait of Hormuz remains shut down.0:24 Twenty million barrels of oil and gas per day are blocked from the global market.0:30 In response, OPEC-plus ministers met today, pledging to raise production.0:35 The number?0:36 A meaningless one hundred eighty-eight thousand barrels per day.0:41 As one analyst put it, "There is very little OPEC can do." Back in the U.S., the pain is at the pump.0:49 Americans have stopped filling their tanks.0:52 They’re "topping up" at Costco and Sam's Club, trying to manage the cost.0:57 Convenience stores are losing the foot traffic that comes with a full tank.1:03 Yet, the U.S.1:04 labor market is holding strong.1:06 Unemployment is steady.1:08 Payrolls are growing.1:10 This resilience is fueling a surge in the U.S.1:13 dollar, and it’s giving the Federal Reserve cover to keep hiking interest rates.1:19 That puts Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on a collision course with former President Trump.1:25 Trump wants rate cuts.1:27 Warsh is looking at three-point-eight percent inflation and refusing to budge.1:33 The result is total uncertainty for next year's Social Security cost-of-living adjustment.1:40 And for anyone trying to buy a house… the market is a fortress.1:44 More than seventy-five percent of homes for sale are unaffordable for a typical household.1:51 With mortgage rates over six percent, the American dream is on hold.1:56 The political fallout is already being priced in.2:00 Analysts at Raymond James now project an eighty-five percent chance of a split Congress after the 2026 midterms.2:08 The reason?2:09 Affordability.2:10 The economy is now the only issue that matters.2:14 Let’s go deeper on the oil shock.2:16 The U.S.2:17 and its allies shut down the Strait of Hormuz in February.2:21 Twenty million barrels a day...2:23 vanished.2:24 The immediate prediction was chaos.2:27 Oil at two hundred dollars a barrel.2:29 Global recession.2:31 None of that happened.2:32 Today, oil is at ninety-six dollars a barrel.2:36 So what went right?2:37 Or… what went wrong somewhere else?2:40 The answer is China.2:41 In May, Chinese oil demand fell by forty percent.2:45 A staggering drop.2:46 That collapse in demand from the world's largest importer has created a buffer.2:52 It has offset between one-third and one-fifth of the supply lost from the Gulf.2:58 It's the only reason prices aren't in the stratosphere.3:02 The second factor is the United States itself.3:06 While the Navy blockades the Gulf, American producers are exporting crude at record levels.3:13 Add in strategic petroleum reserve releases from multiple countries, and you have a fragile, makeshift system keeping the global economy afloat.3:24 But do not mistake this for stability.3:26 This is a balancing act on a razor's edge.3:30 One California consumer, Trevor Chapman, said it best: “Gas is a kind of catalyst.3:36 It trickles down into the entire budget.” That trickle-down effect is the real story.3:42 It’s why people are driving to Costco just for gas.3:46 It’s why seventy-five percent of homes are out of reach for a family earning eighty thousand dollars a year.3:54 The macro numbers — a strong dollar, a steady job market — they don’t pay your mortgage.4:01 They don’t fill your tank.4:03 The White House is pointing to oil at ninety-six dollars a barrel as a victory.4:09 Averted disaster.4:10 But for millions of Americans, ninety-six dollars is still a disaster.4:15 It is the number that is re-writing their household budgets, and it is the number that will re-write the balance of power in Washington this November.4:27 The U.S.4:27 economy looks resilient on paper.4:30 A strong dollar.4:31 Steady jobs.4:32 But at the gas pump and the grocery store, that paper is starting to burn.4:37 The numbers are holding.4:39 The people are not.
